Dr. León-Muñoz, Jorge

The success of Chilean salmon farming’s early cultivation stages is largely facilitated by access to high-quality water, which is provisioned by watersheds dominated by native forests and defined by high precipitation levels. In recent decades, human activities have increasingly affected both attributes. This study analyzed the risk of climate change in 123 watersheds that supply water to land-based salmon farms in south-central Chile (36.5 43◦S). The risk was calculated based on exposure (fingerling and smolt production), sensitivity (land cover maps for three time periods), and hazard indicators (four climate change indicators). The results show a disturbing reality: under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), more than 50% of the current fingerling and smolts production would be located in high or very high-risk areas. These projections are the result of both a drier and warmer climate as well as the continued processes of deforestation and fragmentation of native forests, a spatio-temporal combination which could limit the availability and quality of the water needed for optimal aquaculture production. The risk analysis suggests that landscape configuration may be a potential alternative to mitigate the consequences of climate change on Chilean salmon farming. This is particularly important in areas such as south-central Chile, where the current watershed management and/or conservation strategies do not ensure landscapes resilient to projected hydroclimatic changes.

This study addresses the risk and vulnerability of Chilean salmon production to hazards resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic threat, including limited access to farms, limited processing capacity and reduced market demand. The role of different management approaches in reducing risk and vulnerability is also explored. Results suggest that concession areas having the largest accumulated and current biomass have the highest risk, which is also transferred to the municipal level. The scenarios modelled with better management practices that reduce diseases were able to reduce risks by 30–40%. The largest risk reduction is achieved when production biomass is divided in a more equitable manner among concession areas, suggesting the need for strategic improvements in spatial planning of the activity in the marine environment according to ecosystem carrying capacity and better practices. Improving adaptation capacity can reduce vulnerability between 20% and 30% for municipalities; for example, providing local employment can be a win-win management measure under the COVID-19 threat because it reduces movement of people and facilitates handling and responses to emergencies. A larger footprint in local economies and employment can also improve social perception and acceptance of the sector, thus contributing to improve adaptation changes and governance to face the threats. The framework used here to perform a risk and vulnerability assessment of salmon farming to the pandemic-associated threats can also be useful for other aquaculture systems elsewhere, provided that relevant information is available.

The decrease in freshwater input to the coastal system of the Southern Andes (40–45°S) during the last decades has altered the physicochemical characteristics of the coastal water column, causing significant environmental, social and economic consequences. Considering these impacts, the objectives were to analyze historical severe droughts and their climate drivers, and to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change in the intermediate future (2040–2070). Hydrological modelling was performed in the Puelo River basin (41°S) using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. The hydrological response and its uncertainty were compared using different combinations of CMIP projects (n = 2), climate models (n = 5), scenarios (n = 3) and univariate statistical downscaling methods (n = 3). The 90 scenarios projected increases in the duration, hydrological deficit and frequency of severe droughts of varying duration (1 to 6 months). The three downscaling methodologies converged to similar results, with no significant differences between them. In contrast, the hydroclimatic projections obtained with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 models found significant climatic (greater trends in summer and autumn) and hydrological (longer droughts) differences. It is recommended that future climate impact assessments adapt the new simulations as more CMIP6 models become available.

Freshwater inputs strongly influence oceanographic conditions in coastal systems of northwestern Patagonia (41–45°S). Nevertheless, the influence of freshwater on these systems has weakened in recent decades due to a marked decrease in precipitation. Here we evaluate potential influences of climate and land cover trends on the Puelo River (640 m3s–1), the main source of freshwater input of the Reloncaví Fjord (41.5°S). Water quality was analyzed along the Puelo River basin (six sampling points) and at the discharge site in the Reloncaví Fjord (1, 8, and 25 m depth), through six field campaigns carried out under contrasting streamflow scenarios. We also used several indicators of hydrological alteration, and cross-wavelet transform and coherence analyses to evaluate the association between the Puelo River streamflow and precipitation (1950–2019). Lastly, using the WEAP hydrological model, land cover maps (2001–2016) and burned area reconstructions (1985–2019), we simulated future land cover impacts (2030) on the hydrological processes of the Puelo River. Total Nitrogen and total phosphorus, dissolved carbon, and dissolved iron concentrations measured in the river were 3–15 times lower than those in the fjord. Multivariate analyses showed that streamflow drives the carbon composition in the river. High streamflow conditions contribute with humic and colored materials, while low streamflow conditions corresponded to higher arrival of protein-like materials from the basin. The Puelo River streamflow showed significant trends in magnitude (lower streamflow in summer and autumn), duration (minimum annual streamflow), timing (more floods in spring), and frequency (fewer prolonged floods). The land cover change (LCC) analysis indicated that more than 90% of the basin area maintained its land cover, and that the main changes were attributed to recent large wildfires. Considering these land cover trends, the hydrological simulations project a slight increase in the Puelo River streamflow mainly due to a decrease in evapotranspiration. According to previous simulations, these projections present a direction opposite to the trends forced by climate change. The combined effect of reduction in freshwater input to fiords and potential decline in water quality highlights the need for more robust data and robust analysis of the influence of climate and LCC on this river-fjord complex of northwestern Patagonia.